Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and crime

After chatting with some Zimbabwean colleagues, I may take a road trip through there. Americans always hear about Zimbabwe during discussions of inflation or race-based land grabs. However, these two said that “Bob” as they call him did make a couple of crucial right moves initially. He invested a lot in education, and Zimbabwe consequently has one of the highest literacy rates on the continent. When I asked about the wisdom of a white American driving around Zimbabwe, they said that the thing to remember in Zim is that murders are targeted and by the government. There is crime, of course, but the general crime rate is significantly lower than in Johannesburg.

I think this is similar to Nigeria. I’ve decided that while Nigeria certainly has its dangers, they are more targeted and less random. The Niger Delta is certainly dangerous for an expat oil worker with a regular schedule, but even there the violence has died down significantly in the past two years. We no longer drive around with a guard with an AK-47 in Benin City, and I would feel safer walking around the Benin City or Abuja streets (in a smart manner) than in a lot of Joburg. (Side note: this was not always the case. See the first section of the Wikipedia write up on the Lagos international airport for a sense. Note also that the article is uncited, so I don’t know the veracity, but it makes for a great story.)

Part of the reason I feel safe in Benin City is that as a white guy I’m very rare. That might sound odd, because I certainly stick out and would be juicy to anyone looking for a white guy to kidnap, but since there aren’t a lot of us in Benin City I am also banking on the fact that the experienced criminals on the hunt are in Lagos or Abuja where the pickings (and the wealth) is better or in the Niger where the community as a whole is somewhat hostile. Most people I see are probably too surprised to jump into action and rob me, so they stare or say “hey whitey.” OK, so I don’t want to test that hypothesis, but I would like to think that is usually the case.

Think about three types of criminals:
1. The disgruntled group making a political statement
2. The individual who sees it as an easy way to make money
3. The professionals

1. This is the Niger delta kidnapper. I wouldn’t want to be in his hands, because you are a pawn to make a statement. He probably can’t be fully satisfied by cash, and the people who can give him what he wants (the government) is slow, highly political, and not something I would want to count on.

2. This guy is also dangerous. He needs some cash, but he may well get nervous and shoot you. This is most of the Joburg criminals I think.

3. These guys might be the hardest to avoid, but you probably have the best chance of coming out unscathed but with empty pockets. They’re after money and know that they don’t get money without a live person. (They are not yet brutal like in Latin America.) This is what you worry about in Lagos or Abuja.

The partner on my project, who has worked here for six years or so, had two more things to add. First, Nigerian criminals know that touching a white guy raises the stakes (and the investigative forces brought to bear) a lot, so it’s a deterrent. Second, as only a consultant would say, the Nigerian professionals “understand the concept of client lifetime value” and would prefer to let you go and rob you another day than kill the cash cow.

One other note on Kenya on the topic of crime: apparently it is the weapons smuggling hub for E Africa. This sort of makes sense because there is a lot of legitimate business in which to hide it, and its proximity to Somalia and the Middle East make it a good crossroads.

The Zims also provided another perspective on xenophobia in South Africa. South Africa has problems with local blacks committing violent crimes against immigrants from other countries. One guy said that when he serves South African clients, there is usually some tension when interacting with black South Africans.