"A man and a morass" - a must-read on Nigeria

A great Economist article on Nigeria, the recent elections, and the hope and hurdles facing Nigeria.  A taste:

Many frustrated businessmen—some unpaid for years—think the situation is hopeless. Yet Nigeria’s recent past suggests that small changes can bring vast benefits. The appointment of Attahiru Jega as head of the election commission last year produced the first credible poll in a generation. Telecoms privatisation has reduced phone prices by 99%.

Nigeria is reformable, but it needs the right sort of leader. Its presidency is more powerful than its American equivalent. Favours are bestowed and punishments meted out by “the man in the villa”, as some Nigerians call the occupant of the presidential palace. But he must assert himself over advisers, ministers and godfathers—the visiting regional bosses who lobby him. Many supported Mr Jonathan, who was formerly vice-president, during his 12-month interim presidency after his predecessor, Umaru Yar’Adua, died in office. Now they expect payback. IOUs will be cashed. This is the point where every civil-service reform in the past has failed.

When your infrastructure assumes service delivery failure

Many places have parallel power plugs as shown. The red plugs go through a
device that ensures "clean" power (no frequency/voltage fluctuations).
These are built because SA has struggled with power; it had load-shedding
in 2008 (basically pre-announced rolling blackouts) and it currently runs
on 1/2 the recommended reserve margin, meaning it has very little spare
capacity. The assumed poor ability of parastatals to consistently deliver
basic services means extra costs to people.

In another example, guess what MTN's (big cell phone company) biggest
expense is in Nigeria? Diesel. It has to have a diesel generator next to
every cell tower because of the total lack of consistent power, so it has a
network of trucks to refuel the generators daily. AT&T Mobile has probably
never thought about its diesel consumption.

Joining the traffic jam

A great WSJ article on buying used cars in Lagos.

Cars are status symbols everywhere, but in Nigeria and other African countries they are particularly "aspirational" status symbols -- people will buy above their means to show not what they have but what they hope to have.

Back to Nigeria

This past week I was back in Nigeria, but for a different project, around Lagos this time, and only for 4 days.

Average Nigerian street shop.

This time I actually experienced Lagos traffic. Previously all I did was go airport-hotel-airport, and it took max 2 hrs in traffic. This time I was actually driving in the suburbs of Lagos and to another town (Ibadan). It took me 30 min to get off the islands that make up downtown Lagos, and it took me 6 hrs one night to get back home when it would have been 1.5 hrs with no traffic. Oh, and we were going against prevailing traffic.

It’s not that bad, though, because staring out the window is fascinating. (Some video here.)  It seems that all of life happens on the roadside, whereas in the U.S. it’s set apart by the parking lot separating the street from the shopping center, and in SA it’s set apart by the security fence that rings the shopping complex. At night, open kerosene-fueled flames cast dim light on the dark bodies clogging the streets.

I just can’t describe how bad some roads are. Frequently the undulating packed dirt looks more like a dirtbike track than a street. The highway from Lagos to Ibadan is pretty decent, meaning not too many potholes, but there was a point that was touchy where we were trying to pass 18 wheelers that were weaving all over the road because they were dodging potholes at 80 km/h. That’s how they flip, and I’ve seen a decent number of flipped trucks during my time here.

I had a great driver named Tosin. I had him frequently before, so it was good to see him again. He’s very talkative, has an opinion on everything, and can talk his way into/out of anything. Between his smooth-talking Yoruba and the fact that I’m a white guy in business dress, we got all sorts of meetings we wouldn’t have been able to get had I been a different color or had a different driver.

Like before, I had mixed feelings when leaving. Basic living requires real work there, but the flip side is that the stories are endless.

Very typical religious billboard.  They are everywhere -- probably ~20% of billboards.

IMG00013-20100727-0912.jpg

Except for main roads in Benin (which are paved), roads here even in the
best of times are washboardy and have sinkholes. Driving is like skiing
moguls, where you are constantly weaving to find the best path. It rained
hard this morning, and even though it was brief it was enough to flood
roads and turn inconvenient sinkholes into impassable lakes (and further
damage the roads that are just packed dirt). We went down three streets
today where we to turn around and find another way.

They are doing a lot of road construction here, and I'm sure everyone will
be appreciative when it is finished.